Recently, our sister brand of Growing Produce (under the Meister Media Worldwide umbrella) took a look at data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) regarding expectations that 2024 would be the warmest year on record, and its implications for farmers and growers in the U.S. Here’s a look what they had to say:
Earlier this year, NOAA analyses confirmed 2023 as the warmest year the globe has seen on record (174+ years). And it did so by a wide margin over the previous record-holder. But don’t look now, 2024 is off to a hot start around the world. Will 2024 take over as the warmest on record?
According to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), April 2024 now ranks as the warmest April on record. This marks the 11th month in a row of record warmth for the planet. The year-to-date (Jan. to April 2024) global temperature ranks as the warmest such period on record at 2.41°F above the 20th-century average.
Given such a hot hand, the odds are in favor of another record-setting year in the making. NCEI’s Global Annual Temperature Rankings Outlook is indicating a 61% chance that 2024 will rank as the warmest year on record and a 100% chance that it will rank in the Top 5 of warmest years recorded.
Hurricane Season Coming in Hot
Speaking of record-breaking, initial extended outlooks for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season are calling for an extremely active campaign in the tropics. The sea surface temperatures are warming quickly and are way above normal for this time of year. The extra-warm waters could provide more fuel for an extra-strong tropical punch.
A portion of Colorado State University’s 2024 Atlantic hurricane extended forecast summary reads: “When waters in the eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal in the spring, it tends to force a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic. These conditions will likely lead to a continuation of well above-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.”
In addition to the warmer waters, La Niña is making a comeback just in time for the start of hurricane season. El Niño’s climate counterpart is known to produce conditions much more conducive for storm development and intensification in the Atlantic basin.
CSU’s 2024 Atlantic hurricane season initial outlook calls for 23 named storms; 11 of which will be hurricanes; and five of those developing into major hurricanes (Category 3 to 5). AccuWeather’s official forecast calls for 20 to 25 named storms; eight to 12 of those developing into hurricanes; and four to seven of those reaching major status. All of these figures represent well above normal totals.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1, 2024. There is still time for growers to get their respective hurricane preparedness plans in place.
The original article can be found on the Growing Produce website, along with more news coverage for specialty crop growers.
