Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process.
My weekly Matchup Rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups, listing all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
Adj. FPA, or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below players’ weekly fantasy averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable, a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team’s personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my — and ESPN fantasy staff’s — most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring, unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (at Jacksonville Jaguars). He’s a tough sell, being that he has averaged only 10.9 fantasy points the past six weeks and has been held beneath 15 points in seven of 12 games overall, but absorb how Stroud got to those disappointing numbers. He has faced four of the bottom-10 quarterback matchups (using seasonal numbers) and additionally faced the Minnesota Vikings’ D at their peak. Stroud has also dealt with a barrage of injuries to his wide receivers, with Nico Collins missing five games, Stefon Diggs four, Robert Woods two and Tank Dell one. Collins, Woods and Dell are now healthy, and this is the highest-ceiling matchup remaining on Stroud’s schedule. For some history, three of his six best fantasy point totals have come against the Jaguars, and he has averaged 25.0 points against them. The Jaguars have also allowed a league-most seven games of 20-plus points to quarterbacks, including Stroud’s season-best 23.50 in Week 4.
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Matchup to avoid: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (versus Pittsburgh Steelers). Admittedly, few fantasy managers have the luxury of benching Burrow, the No. 3 scoring quarterback for the season. We nevertheless all aim to scrutinize in these high-stress weeks of the fantasy season, and his matchup is one of the week’s worst. The Steelers are the only defense that haven’t seen a single quarterback score 20 fantasy points against them, with Dak Prescott’s 16.38 in Week 5 their most allowed.
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C.J. Stroud’s need-to-know fantasy stats
Check out the numbers behind C.J. Stroud’s up-and-down day in his loss to the Titans.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Carolina Panthers). Fresh off the bye week, Irving offered his managers far better rate fantasy numbers than did backfield mate Rachaad White, averaging 1.51 PPR fantasy points per touch to White’s 0.90, which could sway Todd Bowles and his coaching staff to lean more heavily upon the rookie going forward. Even if the Buccaneers maintain an even split of the rushing chores, however, a Panthers matchup maximizes opportunities for both backs. The Panthers have seen 15 different running backs score in double-digits against them this season, including four instances where two teammates did so.
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Matchup to avoid: James Conner, Arizona Cardinals (at Minnesota Vikings). One of the most surprisingly productive defenses of 2024, the Vikings’ strength this season has been containing the run. Only four times all year has a running back scored in double-digits against them, three fewer instances than the next-closest defense, and only the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs have fewer Adjusted Fantasy Points allowed to running backs for the season. Additionally, Trey Benson’s increasing usage (31% of the backfield’s rushing attempts the past four weeks, compared to 18% over the first eight) further casts doubts on Conner’s contribution this week.
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Why fantasy managers can count on Bucky Irving
Eric Karabell explains his fantasy optimism for Bucky Irving after his performance vs. the Giants.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Darnell Mooney, Falcons (versus Chargers). For all the raves about the Chargers’ defensive performance this season — and they’ve done well for sure, allowing the fewest points and 13th-fewest yards per game — their secondary hasn’t fared nearly as well over the past six weeks as it did in the first six. Hot-starting cornerbacks Cam Hart and Tarheeb Still have surrendered a combined three touchdowns the past three weeks, and wide receivers as a whole have averaged a seventh-best 42.5 PPR fantasy points against the Chargers. In each of the past two weeks, multiple wide receivers exceeded 11 points against them. Mooney’s 24.1% target share over the past eight weeks, 14th-best at the position, suggests that he’ll see enough work to make a fantasy WR2 impact this week.
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Matchup to avoid: Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens (versus Philadelphia Eagles). Though he has shown a pattern of unpredictability relative to his matchups — he scored 29.7 PPR fantasy points against the Denver Broncos in Week 9, thanks to moving around the formation enough to avoid one-on-one Pat Surtain II matchups, but only 4.0 in a soft matchup against the Buccaneers — Flowers has his work cut out for him this week. During what has been a seven-week hot streak for the defense, the Eagles’ Cooper DeJean and Darius Slay rank seventh- and 15th-best in Target EPA (Estimated Points Added) among cornerbacks with at least 120 coverage snaps when the nearest defender, per Next Gen Stats. Only three wide receivers have scored even 10 points against the Eagles during that time, all of whom are high-profile names (Ja’Marr Chase in Week 8, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua last week).
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Cade Otton, Buccaneers (at Panthers). Though he had a quiet Week 12 — 4.0 PPR fantasy points on a single target — he also didn’t need to do much in a game where the Buccaneers were up by multiple touchdowns 22 minutes into the contest. In four games before the bye, he averaged 9.8 targets and 19.3 points, which should be closer to his true value going forward. The Panthers have allowed a league-most eight games of double-digit points to tight ends this season, including to Chiefs backup Noah Gray last week.
Matchup to avoid: David Njoku, Cleveland Browns (at Denver Broncos). He had a similarly quiet Week 12 — 3.9 points on five targets — succumbing to a tough matchup against the Steelers, which doesn’t bode well for this comparably challenging assignment. The Broncos have seen only two tight ends reach 10 points against them all season, and they were big-time performances by top-shelf names: Brock Bowers (23.7) in Week 5, and Travis Kelce (20.4) in Week 10. Bowers’ quiet follow-up last week (7.8 points), however, serves a reminder of the downside of this particular matchup.
