With the No. 1 seeds seemingly set for the women’s NCAA tournament and a bubble without much depth or drama, some of the biggest bracket decisions for the NCAA Division I Women’s Basketball Committee have already been made.
That doesn’t mean finalizing the official bracket ahead of its release on Selection Sunday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) will be easy — as weeks of toiling over Bracketology have illustrated.
South Carolina, UCLA, USC and Texas should be the headliners when the bracket is announced, with UConn right behind the No. 1 seeds.
The Gamecocks, Bruins, Longhorns and Notre Dame all had a turn at No. 1 in the polls this year, a seasonlong showcase of just how wide open the race to the 2025 championship in Tampa could be.
As the committee finishes deliberations both big and small, ESPN looks at the questions it faces that will most influence the final bracket.
Where will the top seeds play in the regionals?
Matchups, matchups, matchups. One of the most important things to watch Sunday will be the geographical placement of the top seeds and how it impacts which teams stand in their way on the road to Tampa.
While the identity of the four No. 1 seeds might have been set heading into Championship Sunday on March 9, the order shifted following the title games in the SEC and Big Ten. How the committee now sees that order is what will determine the potential matchups deep in the NCAA tournament. All the discussions about the best teams in the regionals and which teams have the best chance to advance to the Final Four will be shaped by the order of the Nos. 1 and 2 seeds.
The loss to South Carolina in the SEC championship game presumably shifted Texas from the top No. 1 seed to the fourth. If the committee agrees, the Longhorns will still be in the Birmingham Regional but will now likely be in the same region as UConn as the No. 2 seed — instead of potentially with TCU. Texas went from being paired with a program with no significant NCAA tournament experience to one with more than anyone in the field.
Because UCLA and USC are both on the No. 1 line, they will get to play in the Spokane Regional in opposite brackets. Notre Dame’s struggles at the end of the regular season and in the ACC tournament pushed the Irish back enough that it now looks like they will be taking the longer trip to the Northwest to join one of the L.A. schools.
The committee does not project matchups down the road in the NCAA tournament. Its job is to select the right 68 teams as the members see them, seed them properly and keep the bracket as balanced as possible. Still, the decisions Sunday will likely impact the games two weeks from now, helping to create the storylines that fuel the sport at the most important time of the season.
How much did Champ Week influence the top 16?
Alabama, Tennessee and Maryland have more Quad 1 wins than Baylor. Kansas State’s NET ranking is six spots higher than that of the Bears. Yet Baylor feels like a more worthy choice to be in the top 16 and earn the right to host first- and second-round NCAA tournament games.
The Bears were also playing from behind entering Champ Week, but they made it to the Big 12 tournament finals, while the Crimson Tide, Lady Vols, Terps and Wildcats were a combined 2-4 in conference tournament play. As a result, Baylor slid past those teams and into the top 16. It was the same for Ohio State, which reached the Big Ten semifinals. The Buckeyes have nine wins against other teams presumably in the field. Even with a NET ranking of 19, that number of wins against good teams should be enough for Ohio State’s inclusion in the top 16.
Will the committee agree?
Because the top 16 seeds host early-round games in the women’s NCAA tournament, selecting the top 16 is one of the most impactful decisions the committee makes every year. And while the Bears and Buckeyes should be the choice this season, rest assured that determining this will be a long-debated part of the process.
Which team takes the final spot in the field?
It should come down to Princeton or Virginia Tech — and this might be the toughest decision the committee makes in the entire process of selecting the bracket. Just one year after the Ivy League got two teams into the NCAA tournament, the conference is on the brink of having three teams go from Ivy Madness to March Madness. Because this is a bubble with little depth, two Ivy teams should get bids (Harvard won the Ivy’s automatic berth) — and with a regular-season title and two wins over Princeton, Columbia has the better case than the Tigers.
That leaves Princeton up against Virginia Tech, the only other viable candidate. Both résumés are full of holes. The Hokies had nine chances in Quad 1 and won one of those games. Princeton also had only one Quad 1 win, at Harvard on Feb. 28. Their NET ratings are essentially the same (Virginia Tech 46, Princeton 47). The Tigers were 4-4 in Quad 1 and 2 games and 6-6 against the top 100 of the NET. The Hokies were 3-8 and 7-12, respectively.
Princeton played a slightly more difficult nonconference schedule. But Virginia Tech beat Louisville and Cal. None of the Tigers’ wins are that good. However, they also don’t have losses as bad as Virginia Tech’s: to Stanford and Virginia at home, and to Syracuse and Boston College on the road. Those losses, combined with Virginia Tech losing four of its final six games to this point, might be the difference.
Last year, Columbia got an at-large bid with zero Quad wins and a NET of 57 over teams with better numbers in both categories but with poor finishes, very similar to the Hokies this year. No two seasons are the same, but last season offers a parallel. Princeton might be the team to capitalize in 2025.
