CFP projections: The race to the top four is taking shape

The College Football Playoff race remains reasonably open — eight teams have at least a 23% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor — but things are starting to come into focus as the model leans more heavily on the selection committee’s midweek rankings.

There are now five teams with at least a 50% chance to reach the CFP: Georgia, Florida State, Ohio State, Michigan and Oregon. Alabama, Texas and Washington all have between a 20% and 30% chance to get in.

Is Week 12 a must win for the Huskies?

Pac-12 leader Washington (10-0, 7-0) has a key game this week on the road at Oregon State (8-2, 5-2).

Here are the Huskies’ chances to reach the CFP depending on Saturday’s result:

Washington with a win: 32%
Washington with a loss: 14%

Washington has the fifth-hardest remaining strength of schedule.

Georgia’s Tennessee test

The Allstate Playoff Predictor has finally started to come around on Georgia, but the Bulldogs do still have one major regular-season test left: at Tennessee this week.

Here are the Bulldogs’ chances to reach the CFP depending on Saturday’s result:

Georgia with a win: 79%
Georgia with a loss: 45%

If Georgia were to win out in the regular season but lose to Alabama in the conference championship game, the Bulldogs would still have a 64% chance to reach the CFP.

Good, but not great, in part because Alabama could take away Georgia’s spot. Georgia has the hardest remaining strength of schedule in part because of that conference championship matchup.

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