Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas is staring down the biggest political threat of his career: a MAGA-fueled primary challenge from state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Paxton kicked off his Senate bid on April 8, announcing it on Fox News with host Laura Ingraham and blasting Cornyn’s “lack of production” in more than two decades on the job.
“We have another great U.S. senator, Ted Cruz, and it’s time we have another great senator that will actually stand up and fight for Republican values, fight for the values of the people of Texas, and also support [President] Donald Trump in the areas that he’s focused on in a very significant way,” Paxton said. “And that’s what I plan on doing.”
The thing is, Cornyn has been reliably conservative and loyal to Trump. But that won’t stop this from likely turning into one of the ugliest, most expensive GOP primaries in recent Texas history—a full-on proxy war between the Republican establishment and the MAGA wing. Trump hasn’t endorsed yet, but he’s teasing that he’ll tip the scales before the March 2026 primary.
Cornyn has all the usual advantages: establishment backing, a deep bench of donors, and nearly $1.6 million raised in just the first quarter of this year alone. Paxton jumped in after the first-quarter fundraising filing deadline, so we’ll have to wait until July to see how much he’s raised.
But what Paxton may lack in cash, he makes up for in chaos.
Last week, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, endorsed Cornyn with a barely veiled jab at Paxton, who’s been dogged by legal drama for years.
“John Cornyn is a leader who delivers on President Trump’s agenda and for the people of Texas in the U.S. Senate,” Scott said. “He’s a proven fighter, man of faith, and essential part of the Republican Senate Majority.”
Indeed, Paxton has faced securities fraud charges, was impeached by the GOP-led Texas House of Representatives for abuse-of-power allegations, and allegedly cheated on his wife. One brutal Cornyn campaign statement put it plainly: “Ken claims to be a man of faith but uses fake Uber accounts to meet his girlfriend and deceive his family.”
While Cornyn may not be a saint, next to Paxton, he sure looks like one. Paxton—whom Trump once called “a very talented guy”—attended the Jan. 6, 2021, rally that preceded the Capitol riot. He also tried to overturn the 2020 presidential election results, and more recently, he oversaw Texas’ first arrests under the state’s post-Roe v. Wade abortion ban. In general, he’s a walking ethics violation.
Still, Paxton has built a loyal following among the Texas GOP’s far-right base, which stood by him during his Republican-led impeachment in 2023. A January poll from the University of Houston, for instance, showed 36% of Texas GOP voters would “definitely” consider voting for him, edging out Cornyn (32%). And some polling has been even starker: A February poll from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates had Paxton up more than 20 percentage points over Cornyn—and, unfortunately, winning in a general election.
Even Texas’ other senator isn’t backing Cornyn. Instead, Cruz is playing neutral, likely because he’s read the same surveys.
“Both John and Ken are friends of mine,” Cruz said to reporters recently. “I respect them both, and I trust the voters of Texas to make that decision.” (Translation: Cruz is hedging.)
Republican voters nominating Paxton isn’t without risks, though.
Axios reports GOP strategists are warning Paxton could give Democrats their best shot at flipping the seat, even though Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in Texas since 1988. In 2024, former Texas Rep. Colin Allred lost to Cruz by over 8 points. (Allred is reportedly also considering a Senate run in 2026.)
Republicans are nervous enough that Senate Majority Leader John Thune is privately pushing Trump to endorse Cornyn, according to CNN.
But Cornyn’s got vulnerabilities that MAGA world loves to exploit, like how he backed aid to Ukraine and supported a bipartisan gun-reform bill after a gunman killed 19 students and two teachers at Uvalde’s Robb Elementary School. That alone might be enough for Paxton to slap him with the dreaded “RINO” label and ride away with the base.
Cornyn may have the donors, the party brass, and the resume—but in today’s GOP, that may not be enough. If Trump backs Paxton, Cornyn’s long Senate career could be toast. And if Paxton wins? Democrats may finally have a (narrow) shot at flipping a Senate seat in Texas.
Either way, this primary is shaping up to be a MAGA-fueled circus. Pass the popcorn.
Republished with permission from Daily Kos.