Many of the WNBA’s biggest stars will battle over the next two months in Unrivaled’s inaugural season of 3-on-3 basketball. But before the likes of former MVP Breanna Stewart, fellow 2024 All-WNBA first-team picks Napheesa Collier and Alyssa Thomas, as well as Brittney Griner and Sabrina Ionescu help tip off the new league Friday, let’s break down the rosters of the six teams vying to bring home the first championship on March 17.
Since we’ve never seen games played using Unrivaled’s rules, which include an 18-second shot clock and a target score, among other notable changes from the WNBA, it’s impossible to say exactly how things will play out. Still, we can look at the talent on each roster using my projections for how these players will perform in the WNBA during the upcoming 2025 campaign.
I’ve used those projections, based on production over the past three WNBA seasons, to rank all six teams in offensive and defensive rating as well as how often we could expect them to win based on those ratings. Let’s take a look, starting with one team that ranks well ahead of the rest.
1. Lunar Owls BC
.604 expected win percentage
Roster: Shakira Austin, Napheesa Collier, Skylar Diggins-Smith, Allisha Gray, Courtney Williams, Cameron Brink (IR)
Collier, who co-founded the league with Stewart, is on a roster stacked at the defensive end. Although the Lunar Owls project below average on offense, their estimated defensive rating is more than four points per 100 possessions better than any other team.
Obviously, that starts with Collier, the WNBA’s Defensive Player of the Year in 2024. Thanks to high rates of blocks, steals and defensive rebounds, Austin has the second-best defensive projection for any player in the Unrivaled pool behind Collier. And all three Lunar Owls guards rate as above-average defenders for their position, though none has made an All-Defensive team.
One question my projections can’t answer is how playing with just five players all season might affect the Lunar Owls, who will be without Brink, the 2024 No. 2 draft pick, after a June ACL tear. Another minor injury will leave the Lunar Owls perilously thin. Still, they’re clear favorites by this method.
2. Phantom BC
.540 expected win percentage
Roster: Natasha Cloud, Brittney Griner, Sabrina Ionescu, Marina Mabrey, Satou Sabally, Katie Lou Samuelson
The second-ranked team, by contrast, is all offense. Phantom has the second-worst defensive projection for any team but the top-rated offense by a wide margin. That starts with Ionescu, the top point guard playing in Unrivaled. Ionescu has built-in chemistry with Sabally, her teammate for three years at Oregon. The last time the two All-WNBA picks played together, the Ducks led the nation in HerHoopStats offensive rating in 2018-19 and 2019-20.
As an interior counterweight, Phantom boasts Griner, who shot a career-high 58% from the field in 2024. In a 3-on-3 format where double-teaming will be nearly impossible, Griner — who recorded the most post-ups in the WNBA last season, per Second Spectrum tracking — could be difficult to stop.
There’s more firepower coming off the bench in the form of Mabrey, who shot 38% on 3-pointers last season while ranking in the WNBA’s top 10 in makes — at least once Mabrey returns from a calf injury that will sideline her for at least the first two weeks. And three-time All-Defensive pick Cloud gives Phantom a stronger defensive option on the perimeter.
3. Vinyl BC
.520 expected win percentage
Roster: Aliyah Boston, Rae Burrell, Jordin Canada, Dearica Hamby, Rhyne Howard, Arike Ogunbowale
In terms of pure scoring, it’s hard to beat Vinyl, which boasts three of the WNBA’s top 16 scorers in 2024 between Hamby (17.3 PPG), Howard (17.3) and Ogunbowale (22.2), as well as a fourth capable scorer in Boston (14.0). Phantom is the only other team that can match those figures.
The task for Vinyl coach Teresa Weatherspoon will be making sure Vinyl’s scorers are integrated together rather than taking turns on offense. Canada, who averaged 5.8 APG during an injury-plagued 2024 campaign, will be key to that task. But Canada, a 24% career 3-point shooter, must shoot more like the 33% she hit in 2023 for opponents to respect her off the ball.
If Weatherspoon can manage that, there’s a nice balance of interior and perimeter power on Vinyl’s roster.
4. Mist BC
.488 expected win percentage
Roster: DiJonai Carrington, Aaliyah Edwards, Rickea Jackson, Jewell Loyd, Breanna Stewart, Courtney Vandersloot
Stewart doesn’t boast a roster that projects quite as well as her co-founder despite having the best individual projection for any player. In part, Mist will have to shoot much better than last season, when its players combined to shoot 28.5% on 3s in the WNBA. No other Unrivaled team was below 32% as a group. Only Jackson (35%) beat that mark for Mist in 2024.
On the plus side, Mist’s players have been much more accurate in the past, shooting 34% career on 3s — better than two other teams. Whether that regression kicks in will be crucial for a team that should boast strong chemistry. Stewart played the past two seasons with Vandersloot with the New York Liberty and the rest of her WNBA career with Loyd for the Seattle Storm, winning championships in both stops.
The defensive projections for Mist are strong, and it could lock down opponents with its team perimeter stopper Carrington with Loyd and Stewart, the latter a six-time All-Defensive pick. Given that potential, I’d bet on Mist outperforming this projection.
5. Laces BC
.430 expected win percentage
Roster: Stefanie Dolson, Tiffany Hayes, Kate Martin, Kayla McBride, Alyssa Thomas, Jackie Young
There’s a lot to like about how the Laces’ roster is constructed. It puts enviable shooting — 39% from 3 last season, 37% career — around one of the WNBA’s best non-shooters in Thomas, who finished second in MVP voting in 2023.
Thomas’ ability to play point center allows the Laces to team her with McBride and Young in a starting lineup with ample shot creation and playmaking. Hayes, last season’s Sixth Player of the Year, and Dolson are solid reserves.
From a statistical standpoint, the Laces’ lack of rim protection is a big drawback. Their roster combined to block just 63 shots last season, fewer than half the 140 by Lunar Owls’ five healthy players. It remains to be seen how important protecting the rim will be in a 3-on-3 setting compared to Thomas’ ability to switch on defense.
6. Rose BC
.418 expected win percentage
Roster: Kahleah Copper, Chelsea Gray, Lexie Hull, Angel Reese, Azura Stevens, Brittney Sykes
The Rose roster will be an interesting test case for the value of efficiency in the 3-on-3 game. Copper’s ability to create her own shot, Gray’s playmaking and Reese’s offensive rebounding are all elite, but none scored with above-average efficiency during the 2024 WNBA campaign. (Gray was highly efficient in 2022 and 2023.)
Thanks in part to Hull’s hot post-Olympics shooting, the Laces were solid from beyond the arc last season. Inside it, their players combined to shoot just 45%. No other Unrivaled team was collectively below 48%. With a shorter shot clock, however, the midrange shotmaking of Copper and Gray could become more relatively valuable. And it will be fascinating to see how Reese’s record-setting offensive rebounding translates to Unrivaled.
