Three games down and three games remain for the U.S. women’s basketball team in its quest for an eighth consecutive Olympic gold medal and 10th overall.
As expected, Team USA went undefeated after completing group play on Sunday at the Paris Games. The U.S. women extended their Olympic win streak to 58 games with victories against Japan (102-76), Belgium (87-74) and Germany (87-68).
But the real basketball lies ahead, as the knockout rounds start Wednesday, when Team USA will face Nigeria (3:30 p.m. ET) in the final quarterfinal of the day.
Nigeria has been a Cinderella story of sorts during the Paris Games. The D’Tigress went 2-1 in its group for their first Olympic victories since 2004, with decisions over Australia and Canada, and they became the first African basketball team — women’s or men’s — to advance to the quarterfinals of the Olympics.
Team USA is plenty familiar with Nigeria. The squads met in the opener of the Tokyo Games in 2021, with the Americans winning by nine points in what was one of just two games decided by single digits in Team USA’s Olympic win streak. They also faced off in February’s Olympic qualifying tournament, during which the U.S. women won comfortably (100-46).
Should Team USA advance to the semifinals, it would play the winner of Serbia-Australia. The Opals have six active WNBA players (Ezi Magbegor, Alanna Smith, Sami Whitcomb, Stephanie Talbot, Kristy Wallace and Jade Melbourne) plus the legendary Lauren Jackson, and they are led by New York Liberty coach Sandy Brondello.
On the other side of the bracket, Belgium will square off with Spain — the only other undefeated country remaining. Emma Meesseman, the 2019 WNBA Finals MVP, leads Belgium along with the Washington Mystics’ Julie Vanloo, while the Las Vegas Aces’ Megan Gustafson plays for Spain.
The victor of the Belgium-Spain meeting will face the Germany-France winner. The latter matchup will feature a slew of familiar WNBA faces: sisters Satou Sabally and Nyara Sabally along with Leonie Fiebich for Germany; and Gabby Williams, Marine Johannes and Iliana Rupert for the Olympic host team.
ESPN breaks down what we’ve learned about Team USA midway through the 2024 Paris Games.
What has impressed you the most about the way Team USA has played?
Philippou: The same likely could be said during every Olympics, but Team USA’s depth is a marvel to watch and remains a major separator from the rest of the field. Kahleah Copper, the WNBA’s second-leading scorer, has been the last player off the bench. Players such as Sabrina Ionescu, Alyssa Thomas and Napheesa Collier see the floor in garbage time. The bench put up 52 of the team’s 87 points Sunday against Germany. It’s really fun to see, especially with so many of those reserves nearing or in their primes.
The Americans’ style of play also stands out. When the U.S. women are at their best — forcing turnovers and stops on defense and using them to score in transition — it’s beautiful basketball. Some of their defensive combinations — being able to play Jackie Young, A’ja Wilson and Thomas together, for example — are the stuff of coaches’ dreams. The competition will get tougher going forward, but if the team stays the course and keeps improving, it’s incredible to think what it might look like by Game 6.
Pelton: Along the lines of the depth, it’s the ability for players to stay ready. Copper saw just six minutes of action in the first two games and Young 22 minutes; but when called upon in larger roles against Germany, they scored a combined 28 points on 10-of-18 shooting, with Young adding four steals.
It’s never easy for players to adjust to smaller roles than they are used to playing as go-to stars on their WNBA teams, but the culture that USA Basketball has developed over the span of seven consecutive gold medals means there’s no room to complain about spending time on the bench.
0:54
Windhorst: U.S. women’s basketball excelling with defense
Brian Windhorst heaps praise on the U.S. women’s basketball team for its impressive defense in a win vs. Germany.
What could trip up the U.S. women?
Philippou: A combination of a poor shooting night on 3-pointers and a litany of turnovers. Team USA’s 32.7% clip from beyond the 3 line ranked fifth in the field in group play, and only three Americans have hit at least three treys: Young (5-for-8, all attempts came on Sunday), Ionescu (4-for-10) and Copper (3-for-4, all attempts Sunday). That trend could make Team USA more one-dimensional and allow opponents to zero in on packing the paint.
The U.S. women also have had moments — particularly when they’re forced to play half-court offense and can’t get in transition — when they’ve struggled with turnovers, many of which could be attributed to their still-developing chemistry on the court.
Pelton: The lack of U.S. 3-point attempts is a bigger issue than the team’s accuracy on them. Only Serbia (16.7) has averaged fewer tries from deep than the Americans (18.3). If an opponent gets hot from 3, the math game could start to work against the U.S. It’s notable that this didn’t happen in Team USA’s one real test against Belgium, which shot 5-of-27 (18.5%) on 3s. A hotter night for the Cats could make for a closer rematch in one possible gold-medal-game scenario.
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The numbers behind the U.S. women’s basketball team’s win over Germany
Check out some of the key stats and facts behind Team USA’s 87-68 win over Germany in women’s basketball.
Which player has impressed the most? Which player has disappointed?
Philippou: Breanna Stewart and Wilson have been sensational, and they are the first duo in U.S. women’s basketball history to each average at least 20 points through the first three games of a single Olympics. (They are each averaging 20.3 points per game.) If anything, one could argue Team USA has had to lean on them too much: They have scored 44.2% of the squad’s points, which if maintained would be a Team USA record for a single Olympics.
The starting backcourt of Diana Taurasi and Chelsea Gray has been a bit lackluster, combining for four points on 2-for-16 shooting (0-for-8 on 3s) across three games, though Gray’s 13-assist game against Japan was a highlight. Team USA largely found its footing against Germany once it went to the bench toward the end of the first quarter, and the pair didn’t see the court after that point, with Ionescu and Jewell Loyd starting the second half and Kelsey Plum and Young also playing big minutes.
Young and Copper, in particular, have stood out as players who didn’t see a ton of playing time earlier in the tournament but were sparks against Germany and made cases for seeing more minutes.
It’s worth monitoring whether coach Cheryl Reeve tinkers with the starting five going into the knockout rounds and which guards she leans on in big moments. The experience of Taurasi and Gray still could prove valuable in those situations.
Pelton: Besides Stewart and Wilson, let’s give a shoutout to Thomas, the other top-three finisher in WNBA MVP voting last year. A starter alongside Stewart and Wilson in the 2022 FIBA World Cup, Thomas has adapted nicely to the role of game-changing reserve with 14 points and nine assists over the past two games. The U.S. outscored opponents by 45 points with Thomas on the court in those games and was minus-13 with her on the bench against Belgium and Germany.
Team USA once won gold, in 2008, with starting point guard Sue Bird averaging 3.0 points per game as she focused on setting up the more talented scorers around her, so there’s proof of concept for that sort of backcourt role. Still, 1.4 points per game combined for your starting guard duo of Taurasi and Gray might not cut it in the medal rounds.
What will most determine Team USA’s quarterfinal matchup with Nigeria?
Philippou: How it responds to Nigeria’s trademark defensive pressure. As point guard Ezinne Kalu said after a win over Australia in which Nigeria came away with 15 steals and forced 26 turnovers, “When we are on the court, we smell blood. Nobody defends quite like us, and that is what keeps us going.” Nigeria forced 17 France turnovers and 26 Canada turnovers (16 of which were steals) in its subsequent games.
In its Tokyo Games matchup with Nigeria, Team USA coughed up the ball 25 times, with the D’Tigress coming away with 11 steals. Turnovers have been an issue at times for the U.S. women, so they will have to be disciplined, communicate and hope their improved chemistry over the course of their time in France reduces potential miscues.
Pelton: On the flip side, the U.S. women also need to take full advantage of a size edge against a Nigeria squad that has no player taller than 6-foot-2 averaging at least 10 minutes per game. In that prior Olympic matchup, the U.S. grabbed 44% of available offensive rebounds and got double-digit rebounds from Stewart, Wilson and Brittney Griner. That’s how Team USA scored 81 points — despite the turnover woes and going 5-of-20 in 3-point shooting.
Will Team USA win an eighth consecutive gold medal? Why or why not?
Philippou: This team is too deep and too talented to have its streak snapped, and Stewart and Wilson are playing too well to allow it to happen. Each group stage game was a valuable learning experience for the team as it works to incorporate all its pieces together and determine which lineups/rotations are best. As a result, Team USA will be playing its best basketball of the tournament in the coming week.
A meeting in the final against France or neighboring Belgium could pose a tough matchup in a hostile environment, but the U.S. women are poised to do what they’ve done in each of the past seven Olympics and bring home gold.
Pelton: In a single-elimination scenario, it’s possible the U.S. women could fall victim to an upset. I’m still not sure which country is capable of pulling that off, however. Spain, the only other team to go undefeated in the group stage, won its three games by a combined total of just 10 points, and it is an underdog at ESPN BET against Belgium in the quarterfinals.
France was dominant in its opening two games but couldn’t take care of business against a slow-starting Australia squad in the group finale, setting up a more difficult quarterfinals matchup against Germany. I wonder whether the hosts’ high-pressure style is as effective against elite opponents as it is versus weaker ones.
Unless another team proves itself a contender in the medal rounds, I don’t see anyone I’d give more than a puncher’s chance against the United States.
